On October 18, Ms. Devadrita Nair presented her research on ”Predictably Unpredictable: How Judgmental Forecasts and Machine Learning Predictions Complement Each Other” at the Annual INFORMS Conference in Indianapolis, Indiana, USA. Co-author of the working paper is Prof. Dr. Arnd Huchzermeier.
Abstract
We present a seasonal demand forecast using machine learning algorithms in combination with expert forecasts and clickstream data. Judgmental forecasts prove to be instrumental as product innovation can be radical, and market information is withheld until the product launch. Hybrid models can further improve the forecasts.