Updates for COVID-19
Simulations by WHU Professor Dr. Markus Rudolf
On April 6, 2020, Markus Rudolf, Dean of WHU – Otto Beisheim School of Management, presented a statistical model in his online session "How long will the coronavirus lock-down last?". It showed the estimated development of the corona crisis. Since then, he has continuously updated and commented the model.
When will the target of 35 new infections per week and 100,000 inhabitants be reached?
February 18, 2021: In Germany, infection figures stayed constant for the last 3 days. If there are no other changes to this trend, this means that the target incidence of 35 infections per 100,000 inhabitants per week will not be reached and that infections and death rates will most likely rise again. Austria, France, and Italy seem to be developing in the same direction.
The situation is different in the United Kingdom and the USA. Here, it can be assumed that the falling infection rates are related to the massive vaccination campaigns. In Switzerland, the pandemic also appears to be more under control.
For Germany, success in making infection rates fall again next week will be crucial.
Projected figures with lockdown
Date: April 21, 2020
New infections 0: May 27, 2020
New deaths 0: June 7, 2020
Total number of deaths: 8,048
Projected deaths and new infections per week and 100,000 inhabitants
Date: February 18, 2021
Target of 35 new infections per week and 100,000 inhabitants: n.a.
Total number of deaths by the end of the pandemic: n.a.
Updated models as of January 18, 2021
red line: day of update; blue line: 50 infections/week/100,000 ihnabitants