Updates for COVID-19
Simulations by WHU Professor Dr. Markus Rudolf
On April 6, 2020, Markus Rudolf, Dean of WHU – Otto Beisheim School of Management, presented a statistical model in his online session "How long will the coronavirus lock-down last?", showing the estimated development of the corona crisis, provided a continuation of the strict lock-down measures. Here you will find constantly updated statistical projections on the prospective death tolls in various countries. The model also shows when new infections will be down to zero (yellow line).
How will the situation develop after the lockdown has been relaxed?
November 15, 2020: In almost all western countries, Corona infection rates are growing exponentially at the moment. The simulation does not show any flattening of the curve in Germany, USA, Italy, and Austria yet, while it already predicts a peak for the second wave for France, Switzerland, Spain, and UK.
Projected figures with lockdown
Date: April 21, 2020
New infections 0: May 27, 2020
New deaths 0: June 7, 2020
Total number of deaths: 8,048
Projected figures after relaxation of first lockdown
Date: November 15, 2020
New infections 0: not available
New deaths 0: not available
Total number of deaths: 25,957
Updated models as of November 15, 2020
red line: day of update; yellow line: new infections 0; green line: deaths 0