Updates for COVID-19
Simulations by WHU Professor Dr. Markus Rudolf
On April 6, 2020, Markus Rudolf, Dean of WHU – Otto Beisheim School of Management, presented a statistical model in his online session "How long will the coronavirus lock-down last?", showing the estimated development of the corona crisis, provided a continuation of the strict lock-down measures. Here you will find constantly updated statistical projections on the prospective death tolls in various countries. The model also shows when new infections will be down to zero (yellow line). It will be interesting to observe how actuals will develop in relation to these numbers as some governments are beginning to relax their regulations and vacation season is attracting people to travel again.
How will the situation develop after the lockdown has been relaxed?
August 3, 2020: Currently, corona new infections are on the rise again in many countries. Germany is as well on the brink of exponential growth once more should these developments continue. The rising number of infections has so far only slightly affected the death rate.
Projected figures with lockdown
Date: April 21, 2020
New infections 0: May 27, 2020
New deaths 0: June 7, 2020
Total number of deaths: 8,048
Projected figures after relaxation of lockdown
Date: August 3, 2020
New infections 0: not available
New deaths 0: not available
Total number of deaths: 9,244
Updated models as of August 3, 2020
red line: day of update; yellow line: new infections 0; green line: deaths 0